{"id":67875,"date":"2026-01-08T22:37:59","date_gmt":"2026-01-09T01:37:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/todologisticanews.com\/site\/?p=67875"},"modified":"2026-01-08T22:38:07","modified_gmt":"2026-01-09T01:38:07","slug":"aranceles-de-ee-uu-podrian-reducir-inflacion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/todologisticanews.com\/site\/aranceles-de-ee-uu-podrian-reducir-inflacion\/","title":{"rendered":"Aranceles de EE.UU. podr\u00edan reducir inflaci\u00f3n"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Un aumento hist\u00f3rico de los aranceles sobre las importaciones estadounidenses, implementado en 2025 por la administraci\u00f3n del presidente Donald Trump, podr\u00eda haber contribuido a <strong>reducir la inflaci\u00f3n<\/strong>. Seg\u00fan un estudio del Banco de la Reserva Federal de San Francisco. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>El hallazgo sugiere que los <strong>recortes de las tasas de inter\u00e9s<\/strong> podr\u00edan haber sido la respuesta pol\u00edtica m\u00e1s adecuada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>El a\u00f1o pasado, las importaciones estuvieron sujetas a un gravamen promedio del <strong>17\u202f%<\/strong>, frente a menos del 3\u202f% a fines de 2024; la tasa m\u00e1s alta desde 1935, seg\u00fan el Yale Budget Lab. Los investigadores Regis Barnichon y Aayush Singh, en su \u00faltima Economic Letter de la Fed, destacan que el fuerte aumento de aranceles podr\u00eda ejercer <strong>presi\u00f3n al alza sobre el desempleo<\/strong>; mientras <strong>frena la inflaci\u00f3n<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>El an\u00e1lisis se basa en <strong>150 a\u00f1os de datos hist\u00f3ricos<\/strong> de Estados Unidos, Francia y Reino Unido. Durante gran parte de 2025, la Fed mantuvo las tasas estables ante la preocupaci\u00f3n de que los aranceles incrementaran la inflaci\u00f3n. Sin embargo, para septiembre, las se\u00f1ales de debilidad en el mercado laboral y la evidencia de que cualquier impulso inflacionario derivado de los grav\u00e1menes ser\u00eda temporal llevaron a la Reserva Federal a <strong>recortar tasas en 75 puntos b\u00e1sicos<\/strong> durante el a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>Mayor presi\u00f3n<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Los investigadores aclaran que estos hallazgos hist\u00f3ricos podr\u00edan no aplicarse completamente a la econom\u00eda actual. La manufactura estadounidense depende hoy m\u00e1s de productos importados, por lo que los aranceles podr\u00edan ahora generar <strong>mayor presi\u00f3n inflacionaria<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Asimismo, la <strong>incertidumbre econ\u00f3mica y la ca\u00edda de los precios de las acciones<\/strong>, factores que suelen acompa\u00f1ar a los shocks arancelarios, podr\u00edan explicar por qu\u00e9 en el pasado los grav\u00e1menes m\u00e1s altos redujeron la inflaci\u00f3n. Sin embargo, en 2025 los principales \u00edndices burs\u00e1tiles de Estados Unidos registraron ganancias de dos d\u00edgitos; lo que impuls\u00f3 el gasto de los hogares y sostuvo la econom\u00eda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Los datos hist\u00f3ricos de la Fed de San Francisco sugieren que los aranceles no necesariamente provocan inflaci\u00f3n; aunque el contexto econ\u00f3mico y la estructura del comercio actual pueden modificar su efecto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>TodologisticaNEWS: Las principales noticias sobre puertos, log\u00edstica, transporte y comercio exterior<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Un aumento hist\u00f3rico de los aranceles sobre las importaciones estadounidenses, implementado en 2025 por la...","protected":false},"author":957,"featured_media":67903,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"episode_type":"audio","audio_file":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","filesize_raw":""},"categories":[89,11334],"tags":[8705,214,1184,229,10492,100,145],"yst_prominent_words":[935,1232,1393,165,1386,793,2727,5675,2172,3823],"series":[],"episode_featured_image":"https:\/\/todologisticanews.com\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Banner_Aranceles_08-01-2026.jpg","episode_player_image":"https:\/\/todologisticanews.com\/site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/LOGO-PODCAST.jpeg","download_link":"","player_link":"","audio_player":false,"episode_data":{"playerMode":"dark","subscribeUrls":{"apple_podcasts":{"key":"apple_podcasts","url":"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/uy\/podcast\/todologistica\/id1515118482","label":"Apple Podcasts","class":"apple_podcasts","icon":"apple-podcasts.png"},"google_podcasts":{"key":"google_podcasts","url":"","label":"Google Podcasts","class":"google_podcasts","icon":"google-podcasts.png"},"spotify":{"key":"spotify","url":"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/show\/10D0EeKwuNi9BrB6KSt4px?si=Tn0hRTGJQwW6HqtWKotEZg","label":"Spotify","class":"spotify","icon":"spotify.png"},"stitcher":{"key":"stitcher","url":"","label":"Stitcher","class":"stitcher","icon":"stitcher.png"},"ivoox":{"key":"ivoox","url":"","label":"iVoox","class":"ivoox","icon":"ivoox.png"}},"rssFeedUrl":"https:\/\/todologisticanews.com\/site\/feed\/podcast\/todologistica","embedCode":"<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"TPJGjP3kKV\"><a href=\"https:\/\/todologisticanews.com\/site\/aranceles-de-ee-uu-podrian-reducir-inflacion\/\">Aranceles de EE.UU. podr\u00edan reducir inflaci\u00f3n<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" src=\"https:\/\/todologisticanews.com\/site\/aranceles-de-ee-uu-podrian-reducir-inflacion\/embed\/#?secret=TPJGjP3kKV\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" title=\"\u00abAranceles de EE.UU. podr\u00edan reducir inflaci\u00f3n\u00bb \u2014 TodoLOGISTICA NEWS\" data-secret=\"TPJGjP3kKV\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">\n\/*! 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